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The Validation Loop

A free workbook for finding out if an idea is real before you build it: name the problem, find the belief that could sink you, and decide what would prove you wrong before you test.

At a glance

  • The bar is a sentence, not a form
  • Count against what you wrote, not what you hope
  • One part at a time
  • Nudges, not grades, and no AI
  • Private by default

Open the Validation Loop

The question

Founders test an idea, then decide what the results mean, and by then hope has quietly moved the bar. My talk on validating ideas ends with a loop: believe, test, count, decide, every week. Could a small tool make that loop something you actually do, rather than a slide you nod along to?

What I built

A workbook in six steps that follows the talk. Problem: who is struggling, with what, and why, plus a four-question painkiller check. Beliefs: what has to be true, each sorted by how costly it is if wrong and whether it's a hunch or evidence, so the one that could sink you rises to the top. Questions: interview questions, checked for the wording that invites polite answers.

Test: a test picked from a short menu that matches the risk, written as one sentence with a number and a date. Count: what people did, held against that number. Decide: persevere, change the scope or pivot, then the next belief.

It started as The Bar, a single page for the test step, and grew into the loop once it was clear the bar only means something next to the steps around it.

Inside

How it looks in use.

Role
Sole designer, developer and owner
Built with
Plain HTML, CSS and JavaScript, no build step
Runs
In the browser, no account, saved on your device
Status
Released, early
Setting the bar: the number goes in, Continue, and the test is written down as one sentence.
Counting: the bar fills past the marker and the result turns green.
The test step: earlier parts fold into lines, the sentence stays open, and help sits in the rail.
The test step: earlier parts fold into lines, the sentence stays open, and help sits in the rail.
Beliefs on a map of cost and evidence: the one that could sink you is named.
Beliefs on a map of cost and evidence: the one that could sink you is named.
Picking a test: only the one that fits the risk, with all six a click away.
Picking a test: only the one that fits the risk, with all six a click away.
The painkiller check: four quick yes or no questions and a meter.
The painkiller check: four quick yes or no questions and a meter.
Count: the result held against the bar you set before testing.
Count: the result held against the bar you set before testing.
Decide: persevere, change the scope or pivot, with what each looks like.
Decide: persevere, change the scope or pivot, with what each looks like.
The bar as a one-page brief, ready to save as a PDF or share as a link.
The bar as a one-page brief, ready to save as a PDF or share as a link.

Up close

The details that carry it.

The one to test first
The one to test firstBeliefs placed by cost and evidence, so the risky hunches sit in the corner that says test it first.
One sentence to hold you to
One sentence to hold you toBelief, test, people, number and date in a line you can say out loud.
A number against a line
A number against a lineWhat people did, with your bar marked, so the result can't argue.
Questions that invite the truth
Questions that invite the truthFuture and hypothetical wording flagged, with a way to ask about the past instead.

Decisions that mattered

  • The bar is a sentence, not a form"We're right if 3 of 5 do this by Thursday" is something you can say to a co-founder and check later. Vague words like "interest" or "positive feedback" get a gentle nudge.
  • Count against what you wrote, not what you hopeThe count shows as one big number with a marker where the bar sits, so it either clears it or it doesn't.
  • One part at a timeEach step opens one small part, and finished parts fold into a single line you can reopen. Help, examples and further reading wait in a quiet rail beside it, for when you want them.
  • Nudges, not grades, and no AIPlain word lists flag questions about the future or opinions. Behaviour beats opinion, and AI is an opinion too.
  • Private by defaultEverything stays in the browser. A shared bar travels inside the link itself and never reaches a server.

What I learned

The hardest part isn't the test, it's choosing which belief to test. Putting the sorting before the bar did more for the honesty of the result than any feature after it.

Project notes

This project is released, so you can try it right now. It keeps changing as I use it and learn from the people who do.

Something similar in mind?

Most of these started as a question I couldn't let go of. If you have one too, let's talk.

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